Hurricane Ike 2008
The start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 never really meant that much to me until I went to live in Bermuda and within the first month became glued to the weather reports as swirls of clouds spun slowly towards this unprotected dot in the middle of the Atlantic.
As it came nearer, I was surprised by the ferocity of the winds bending and stripping the trees, the swell that turned the turquoise ocean to dark muddy water, the rip currents that pulled the sand from under your feet and made you retreat from the water’s edge quickly.
Windows boarded up, electricity gone we braved the ripping wind and lashing rain to go to our first hurricane party at a well-seasoned neighbour’s house (thanks Bill and Dawn). We all drank rum and warming beer as the wind threatened to lift the roof off the houses. Luckily we were living in an ancient house carved well into a hill, that had survived countless much worse storms.
Now living in the UK where all we have to contend with is colder or warmer drizzle, I still watch the weather both for hits on Bermuda and for professional interests as I work with reinsurers whose lifeblood is to insure against the wrath of Mother Nature.
So on Tuesday, June 1, the hurricane season officially starts, and the predictions are for a bit of a hum-dinger of a season – particularly for the East Coast of the US, where insured losses could be astronomical should one of the storms make landfall. While there is an element of crystal-ball gazing in all these predictions, they are based on as sound a scientific evidence as we have.
Apparently, according to Colorado State University, the cooler temperatures in the Pacific and warmer temperatures in the Atlantic increase the risk for the East Coast being hit by a hurricane in 2010. These University researchers predicted a busy season, which officially lasts six months, of 15 named storms, with four developing into major hurricanes.
Last season 3 hurricanes developed out of nine tropical storms last season, but none hit the US coast. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) today (May 27) predicted an “active to extremely active” hurricane season for 2010. Reasons given are:
- Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms.
- Warm Atlantic Ocean water
- High activity era continues. (Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms)
This division of the US National Weather Service is well known to us watchers of swirly clouds, and their predictions, graphics and storm watches at the National Hurricane Center are so easy to find and digest.
The NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:
- 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
What this means is reinsurers and insurers will be tuning into the same channels, looking into the same crystal balls, watching for a big, slow hurricane that might hit the US coast – or God forbid, hit the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico and spread it who knows where.
For good information, keep an eye on the Insurance Information Institute’s blog here, as they are very up-to-date.
So I will be sneaking off to my desk to log on to hurricane watches through the summer, and if one hits, I will have to re-tell the story to my daughter Katy of
Mairi and baby Katy watch the waves in Bermuda after Fabian passes
how, as a baby, she slept right through Hurricane Fabian as it ripped through Bermuda, and the locals partied the night away.
A big hit might also make for a lively Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous once again, reminiscent of Katrina, Rita, Wilma years, as everyone scrabbles to predict price hikes, loss numbers and swear that the climate is not right for any new kids on the block to spring up in the wake of disaster.
Tags: Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Season, Nat/Cat, rendez-vous
[...] at images like this one or, let’s hope, one more benign. Reinsurance Girl gives a good roundup of the start of the season, including forecasts of the number and intensity of storms and a link to [...]